| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Southeast Missouri State | 42-24 | 1428.8 | +0.0 | 1428.8 | 39.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Arkansas | 14-56 | 1428.8 | -18.0 | 1410.8 | 26.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Iowa State | 16-24 | 1410.8 | -11.9 | 1398.9 | 10.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 21-28 | 1398.9 | -57.1 | 1341.8 | 73.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | UL Monroe | 16-28 | 1341.8 | -44.0 | 1297.8 | 59.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Texas State | 31-30 | 1297.8 | +60.7 | 1358.5 | 22.6% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | W | South Alabama | 15-14 | 1358.5 | +42.4 | 1400.9 | 57.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 34-24 | 1400.9 | +35.6 | 1436.5 | 50.3% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Troy | 23-10 | 1436.5 | +62.8 | 1499.3 | 32.6% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 21-27 | 1499.3 | -62.3 | 1437.0 | 66.7% |
| 14 | Nov 20 2025 | L | Louisiana | 30-34 | 1437.0 | -52.3 | 1384.7 | 53.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | App State | 30-29 | 1384.7 | +48.6 | 1433.3 | 50.7% |
| 18 | Dec 18 2025 | W | Missouri State | 34-28 | 1433.3 | +42.7 | 1476.0 | 49.8% |